Numerous macroeconomic variables are hurting the crypto market, as Bitcoin’s price hang in there at $19177 after dropping more than 2% in the last day. The recent rally didn’t manage to keep any of its gains, and now it looks like BTC might only climb 0.27% in the next week. Investors ought to be cautious though: Charles Schwab is claiming that a recession may soon plague Bitcoin investors especially.
Jeffrey Kleintop, the Chief Global Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, sounds an alarm about one of the leading indicators of global economic health. According to Kleintop, every time the OECD total leading indicator falls below 99 recession follows.
He goes on to say that the last time this marker was below 99 was in 2020, during the worldwide recession caused by the pandemic. This also occurred early 2008, early 2001, late 1990, late 1981, mid-1974, and mid-1970.
It is currently below the 99 mark.
The leading economic indicator suggests a potential large change in the global economic outlook. Additionally, it reveals any negative business activity that could be harmful. According to OECD data, consumer confidence has drastically decreased and is now worse than during both the 2020 pandemic and 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
The manufacture outlook in New York has fallen recently, as seen in the Empire State Manufacturing Index.
The World Bank released a report recently stating that the global economy will face a recession in 2023. The demand for goods and services would be this slow because of how central banks are managing their hawkish policy guidance. In other words, the federal reserve said that it’ll cost more to do nothing about stopping inflation, then it is to do too much.
Bitcoin was created in the wake of the last major recession, so there is no historical data to analyzing how it will perform in the event of another economic downturn. However, if the Fed takes steps to address a slowdown in demand, Bitcoin prices could surge as a result of quantitative easing.
However, during a recession the stock market does not typically do well. Since Bitcoin and the stock market are strongly correlated, heavy losses could be suffered by Bitcoin due to a recession.