Bitcoin (BTC) could see a turnaround this weekend after six consecutive weekends of negative returns, according to Standard Chartered head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick.

In a research note shared with CryptoSlate on Feb. 14, Kendrick highlighted Bitcoin’s recent pattern of weak weekend price action, with every weekend since early January posting negative returns.

He attributed the declines to market-moving headlines, including volatility tied to DeepSeek-related news in late January and tariff concerns on Feb. 12.

However, with macroeconomic conditions improving and US bond yields trending lower, he sees a higher probability of positive weekend performance.

“Given we have had the bad news (as below re tariffs) and US 10Y yields are currently down on the week (and very importantly below 4.5%), I think this weekend will be different.”

Market setup points to recovery

Kendrick analyzed Bitcoin’s day-of-week performance in 2024, noting that Mondays and Fridays have typically been the strongest trading days.

In contrast, weekend sessions have been lackluster, potentially exacerbated by lower liquidity and risk-off sentiment among traders.

He suggested that a small positive catalyst over the weekend could prompt renewed ETF inflows on Monday, helping Bitcoin break out of its recent trading range. Kendrick noted:

“A small positive over the weekend can lead to ETF buying Monday after a week of ETF outflows.”

He added that Bitcoin could then test key psychological levels at $100,000 and $102,500 since it is a “Giffen good after all,” referencing the economic theory where demand increases as prices rise.

Despite recent weakness, Bitcoin has remained in an uptrend, gaining more than 20% year-to-date.

Tariff uncertainty

Beyond Bitcoin’s technical outlook, Kendrick also discussed broader macroeconomic developments, particularly the impact of US inflation data and shifting expectations around former President Donald Trump’s potential policies.

US Treasury yields declined following a softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report earlier in the week and a weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) reading on Feb. 14.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which investors closely watch as a gauge of borrowing costs and risk appetite, remained below 4.5%, a level Kendrick sees as constructive for digital assets.

According to the analyst:

“If latest headlines are to be believed, we are past bad Trump from a tariff perspective, with reciprocal tariffs only taking effect April 1.”

He also suggested that optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal could further shift market sentiment. He noted:

“On the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, we may be finally moving from bad Trump to good Trump as far as risk assets are concerned.”

Kendrick reiterated his bullish stance on Bitcoin, suggesting that if these macro factors hold, the crypto could be on track to hit $102,500 in the near term.

Based on CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin was trading at $97,348 as of press time, up 2% over the past 24 hours.

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