Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to move higher as US Treasury yields remain below 4.50%, creating a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for digital assets, according to Standard Chartered head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick.

In an internal note shared with CryptoSlate, Kendrick highlighted that the 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to break above 4.50%, a level closely watched by market participants.

He described the economic backdrop as a “Goldilocks” scenario for digital assets — where economic growth remains strong but does not spur higher yields that could weigh on risk assets.

According to Kendrick, stable bond yields and an absence of fresh inflationary risks, such as additional tariffs, could create ideal conditions for Bitcoin to push toward a new all-time high above $108,000 in February.

He noted that if Bitcoin can remain above the $95,000 key support level, it’s more likely to push back into six figures.

Kendrick wrote:

“I stick with my view from Friday that up is becoming more likely than down for Bitcoin in the short-term. Look for 95k to hold on the downside and markets to push up towards the important 102.5k level soon.”

He emphasized that Bitcoin’s price action remains constructive as long as key macroeconomic conditions remain steady.

Trump Tariffs

Kendrick also highlighted President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports as a shift toward more targeted, reciprocal tariffs rather than broad-based trade restrictions.

Kendrick believes this move could have a more limited inflationary impact than feared, helping to contain Treasury yield risks. Lower yields typically benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin, by reducing the appeal of fixed-income investments.

Kendrick argued that Trump’s latest policy shift and market sentiment moving away from fears of “Bad Trump” economic disruption could ease risk aversion and support further upside for Bitcoin.

Last week, following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline.

BTC fell from approximately $105,000 to a low of around $91,000. The downturn was attributed to investor concerns over potential global trade conflicts and economic instability stemming from the tariffs.

Bitcoin’s price rebounded back above $100,000 after the US reached agreements with Mexico and Canada to delay the implementation of these tariffs. However, the flagship crypto failed to sustain its upward momentum.

According to CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin was trading around $95,416 as of press time, down 2% on the day.

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