Is XRP heading towards $1 amid persistent ETF outflows?

Key takeaways

• XRP traded near $1.09 on Monday following a drop of more than 10% last week, with sellers maintaining control of the wider market.
• U.S. spot XRP ETFs posted $529,510 in net outflows last week, snapping a two-week streak of positive institutional inflows.
• Persistent bearish technical indicators leave XRP vulnerable to a retest of the psychological $1 support level.

XRP remains under steady selling pressure on Monday, trading near $1.097 after dropping more than 10% over the previous week.

The cryptocurrency remains firmly entrenched in a bearish trend as softening institutional demand, weakening derivatives positioning, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions hamper recovery efforts.

XRP ETF outflows signal cooling institutional demand

Institutional interest in XRP lost momentum last week, reversing the net inflows recorded over the preceding two weeks.

Data from SoSoValue shows that U.S. spot XRP ETFs registered $529,510 in net weekly outflows, ending two straight weeks of positive capital additions.

The return to negative weekly flows leaves XRP in a precarious position, given that the asset is already dealing with substantial technical headwinds.

Beyond ETF redemptions, derivatives market activity indicates that traders are increasingly bracing for additional downside.

According to CoinGlass, XRP’s long-to-short ratio slipped to 0.89 on Monday, nearing its lowest level in over a month. A ratio below 1.0 signifies that short positions outweigh long positions, showing that traders favor further price declines.

Data from CryptoQuant reinforces this negative sentiment. The analytics provider’s market overview highlights large whale orders across both spot and futures venues, accompanied by persistent sell-side dominance. This pattern indicates that larger market participants remain active while sell orders continue to outpace buying demand.

CryptoQuant also noted heating conditions within the spot market, pointing to elevated trading activity during the ongoing price pullback.

Macroeconomic factors are presenting additional obstacles for XRP as investors re-evaluate expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Last week’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates restrictive for an extended period or enact another rate hike.

Figures from the CME FedWatch Tool indicate that traders are pricing in approximately a 78.7% probability of a December rate hike, up from 72.8% prior to the jobs report.

XRP price forecast: Bears target the psychological $1 support

XRP’s technical setup remains bearish, with the cryptocurrency continuing to trade far below its key moving averages.

As of Monday, XRP is trading near $1.097 following a steep weekly decline that has left buyers struggling to regain momentum.

The asset remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are grouped between $1.302 and $1.360. This cluster forms a formidable resistance zone, implying that any rally could encounter strong selling pressure.

Momentum indicators also reflect ongoing weakness. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 26, placing XRP deep inside oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, confirming the prevailing downward momentum.

With XRP hovering near recent lows, sellers may attempt another move toward the psychological $1 support level. A decisive break beneath this threshold would mark a major technical setback and could spark further selling, though new support levels would need to take shape.

Despite the prevailing bearish environment, XRP could stage a brief bounce if buyers take advantage of oversold momentum readings. The initial key resistance level rests at $1.160, which bulls must recover to trigger an early recovery.

A sustained move above $1.160 could pave the way for a broader advance toward $1.300, where stronger selling interest might resurface.

Beyond that point, XRP faces additional resistance at the 50-day EMA ($1.302) and the 100-day EMA ($1.307). The 200-day EMA at $1.360 stands as another major hurdle that buyers must surpass before the overall technical landscape begins to improve.