Solana could dip to $74 as Fed rate-hike odds hit 99%

Key takeaways

• Solana (SOL) has fallen 9% over the past seven days, driven down by U.S. political uncertainty and growing concerns over tighter monetary policy across cryptocurrency markets.
• Data from the CME FedWatch Tool cited in the report shows the likelihood of a December Federal Reserve interest rate hike jumping from 84% to 99%.
• SOL risks sliding toward $74 or lower if it fails to maintain the $80 support region, though an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 25 hints that a temporary rebound is possible.

Solana (SOL) continues to face heavy selling pressure after shedding roughly 9% of its value in the past week, with weakening network activity and deteriorating market sentiment intensifying fears of deeper losses.

The cryptocurrency is drifting toward a key support zone around $80 as investors react to rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.

Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller have reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy, sending the probability of a rate hike up to 99%, according to CME FedWatch data referenced in the report.

Fed rate-hike expectations jump to 99% after Waller’s comments

Expectations for stricter U.S. monetary policy escalated following hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

Speaking at a conference hosted by the Bank of England, Waller advocated for another interest rate increase during the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting.

He noted that he would favor raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points even if inflation conditions showed improvement over September levels.

Waller added that more aggressive measures might be required if inflation significantly outpaces his expectations.

The remarks triggered a rapid reassessment among market participants. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool data cited in the report, the probability of a December rate increase spiked from 84% the day prior to approximately 99%.

This swift adjustment indicates that traders increasingly expect the central bank to maintain a restrictive monetary stance.

For digital assets, higher interest rate environments typically create challenging market conditions.

Solana price forecast: SOL risks falling to $74 if $80 support breaks

Solana’s technical outlook remains tilted to the downside as the token nears a critical support level near $80.

On the daily timeframe, SOL is closing in on a fair value gap (FVG) established during its August rally. For Solana, this FVG could act as an important demand zone where buyers attempt to halt the decline.

However, a decisive breakdown beneath this support area would further weaken its overall technical structure.

If SOL fails to hold the $80 region, the next major downside target lies near $74. A prolonged move below $74 could expose the asset to additional declines, though the provided analysis does not specify a confirmed support level below that mark.

Momentum indicators also reflect growing bearish pressure. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 23, placing Solana deep in oversold territory.

An RSI reading below 30 typically signals that selling pressure has become overextended, which raises the probability of a short-term bounce.

Despite the broader bearish trend, Solana’s oversold momentum readings indicate that buyers may try to stage a defense near current support levels.

The $80 area is especially critical because it coincides with a fair value gap capable of sparking renewed buying interest.

A successful defense of this price level could trigger a brief recovery, potentially allowing SOL to rebound toward its nearest key resistance around $95.

Conversely, failing to defend $80 makes a drop toward $74 increasingly likely.