Cardano holds above $0.22 as falling OI signals risk of further losses

Key takeaways

• ADA futures open interest decreased from $549.14 million to $475.58 million, pointing to reduced derivatives exposure.
• A positive funding rate signals a mild bullish bias among perpetual swap traders, leaving long positions vulnerable if prices continue to drop.
• Cardano trades beneath major moving averages, positioning $0.1894 as a potential target to the downside.

Cardano Stabilizes After Sharp Weekly Decline

Cardano held above $0.2200 on Monday as buyers attempted to steady the price following a roughly 12% drop last week.

ADA has lost over 10% so far in October. Meanwhile, declining derivatives activity and muted adjustments by large wallet holders indicate limited conviction behind a price recovery.

The daily chart remains under pressure after breaking below trendline support near $0.2321 last week. With the asset trading below its key moving averages, sellers retain control in the short term.

CoinGlass data reveals that open interest in Cardano futures dropped to $465.87 million on Monday, down from $549.14 million last week.

This drop represents a contraction of roughly 14.5% in the total value of active contracts.

While the decrease points to lower overall exposure in derivatives markets, it does not definitively prove that retail traders are leaving the space. Falling ADA prices can naturally decrease dollar-denominated open interest, alongside voluntary position closures and forced liquidations.

The perpetual funding rate held in positive territory at 0.0032%, showing that long position holders were paying fees to shorts.

This slight positive reading suggests some traders are still anticipating a rebound, though funding rates alone do not confirm excessive leverage.

However, further price declines could put overextended long positions under strain and trigger additional selling.

On-chain figures indicate that major holders have made only minor adjustments to their positions.

Data from Santiment shows that wallets holding at least 100 million ADA controlled 15.99% of the circulating supply, a slight increase from 15.95% the previous week.

At the same time, addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA represented 38.11% of the supply, down from 38.27%.

These divergent shifts present a mixed outlook rather than a clear pattern of accumulation. Furthermore, the metrics do not establish whether tokens were liquidated, moved between personal wallets, or transferred across different tier categories.

Combined with lower futures open interest, these figures offer little evidence of renewed buying momentum.

Cardano’s Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

ADA continues to trade below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average near $0.2290 and its 200-day EMA near $0.2395.

The loss of trendline support around $0.2321 reinforces the fragile technical backdrop, creating several overhead barriers above current price levels.

Momentum indicators confirm this downside bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains beneath zero with a negative histogram, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 41.

While the RSI reading demonstrates that sellers maintain control, ADA has not yet reached the classic oversold benchmark of 30.

Unless buyers reclaim immediate resistance levels, the latest price stabilization reflects a pause within an ongoing correction rather than a confirmed market reversal.

If selling pressure resumes, the psychological level at $0.20 serves as immediate support. Below that mark, the August 30 low near $0.1894 forms the next structural support zone.

A descent toward $0.1894 would represent a decline of approximately 14% to 15% from current market levels.

To the upside, buyers must first reclaim the 50-day EMA at $0.2290. The former trendline support at $0.2321 poses the next challenge, followed by the 200-day EMA at $0.2395.

A sustained break above those levels would begin to neutralize the bearish outlook. Until then, Cardano remains vulnerable to further downside as the market tests whether buying demand can hold around $0.2200.