Cardano price forecast: Can ADA extend its recovery toward $0.245?

Key takeaways

• Cardano is hovering near $0.222 on Monday, following a rally of over 15% during the previous week.
• ADA’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.94, suggesting a minor tilt toward bearish sentiment.
• Positive funding rates and substantial whale transactions are offering mildly bullish indications.
• Both the RSI and MACD signal that upward momentum is gathering strength.

Cardano consolidates after a 15% weekly surge

On Monday, Cardano (ADA) is trading near $0.222, holding onto gains from a rally of more than 15% last week.

While mixed derivatives data and slightly positive on-chain metrics point to a cautious approach from market participants, rising technical momentum indicates that ADA could push higher. To extend its recovery, buyers will need to clear a series of resistance barriers located between $0.231 and $0.245. Supporting this short-term positive outlook, the token is currently holding above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).

On Monday, ADA’s derivatives market presents a split outlook. CoinGlass data indicates a long-to-short ratio of 0.94. Because this figure is below 1, short positions slightly outnumber longs, showing that a small majority of traders are positioning for a price drop. However, the narrow margin between bulls and bears suggests market participants are exercising caution rather than committing to a heavily bearish stance.

In contrast, funding rates present a more promising signal. Cardano’s open interest-weighted funding rate crossed into positive territory on Saturday, reaching 0.0097% on Monday. A positive rate indicates that long position holders are paying short sellers, which generally reflects growing demand for bullish positions. This change suggests market sentiment has improved in the wake of ADA’s recent double-digit gains.

Data summaries from CryptoQuant also align with a cautiously optimistic outlook for Cardano.

The futures market has seen an influx of large whale orders, signaling heightened engagement from high-net-worth traders. However, because most other monitored indicators remain neutral, the overall strength of this bullish signal is somewhat capped.

This mix of large-scale orders and otherwise neutral metrics suggests that while institutional or whale interest is rising, the broader market has not yet pivoted to an aggressively bullish stance. Continued accumulation by large holders could sustain ADA’s upward path, whereas a slowdown in whale activity might leave the asset open to profit-taking pullbacks.

Technical indicators point to rising momentum

ADA remains positioned above both its 50-day and 100-day EMAs, which are currently clustered around the key psychological level of $0.200.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 61. This level indicates healthy upward momentum without pushing the asset into overbought territory (above 70), suggesting room for further gains before the rally becomes exhausted. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has ticked slightly positive, suggesting that buyers are steadily taking the reins, even as a descending trendline continues to act as dynamic resistance.

Combined, the RSI and MACD paint a constructive short-term picture, though ADA must still break through several overhead levels to lock in a prolonged recovery.

Cardano’s first hurdle is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.231. Overcoming this point would shift focus to horizontal resistance at $0.236. Beyond that, the 200-day EMA lies around $0.243, just below another critical resistance point at $0.245. This dense zone of overhead resistance could trigger profit-taking and cap ADA’s immediate gains. A decisive breakout above $0.245 and the descending trendline would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially pave the way for a deeper recovery.

On the downside, if ADA fails to break above $0.231, it could trigger a retracement toward the 50% Fibonacci level at $0.213. Below that, key support is found at the 100-day EMA near $0.200, followed by the 50-day EMA aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.195. Further down, stronger support levels sit at $0.173 and $0.150.

As long as ADA holds above $0.200, its near-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, but breaking through the $0.231 to $0.245 resistance zone remains essential for sustaining the upward trend.