Ethereum reclaims $2,300 as $1.61B ETF outflows weigh on recovery

Key takeaways

• Ethereum (ETH) has climbed back above $2,300 after dropping below its $2,309 realized price following a $6.3 billion security breach at Binance.
• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs registered their seventh straight trading day of net outflows on Tuesday.
• ETH faces initial support at $2,250, followed by $2,204 and $2,107, while recovering above $2,309–$2,355 could improve the short-term trajectory.

Ethereum (ETH) reclaimed the $2,300 threshold on Wednesday, following a gain of over 2% across the preceding 24 hours.

Despite the bounce, the second-largest cryptocurrency has yet to move back above its realized price of $2,309—a closely tracked on-chain metric representing the average purchase price of ETH based on its most recent transfer across the network.

Ethereum broke below this benchmark after a $6.3 billion hack on Binance last Thursday sparked renewed uncertainty throughout the broader cryptocurrency market.

Its struggle to push past this cost basis comes alongside continuous capital redemptions from U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reinforcing concerns surrounding institutional interest.

While ETH has managed to defend support around $2,250, technical indicators signal that sellers maintain control of market momentum.

Ethereum approaches the $2,309 realized price

Recent price action highlights the growing technical importance of Ethereum’s realized price, currently calculated at $2,309.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that ETH fell under this level after the Binance security breach and has struggled to reclaim it over the past two days.

The realized price reflects the value of coins at their last on-chain transaction divided by the circulating supply. It functions as an indicator of the market’s aggregate cost basis, though it does not reflect every trader’s individual entry price.

Trading above this metric generally indicates that the overall market holds unrealized profits, while a move below suggests that the average cost basis exceeds current market prices.

This dynamic often influences investor sentiment during turbulent market phases. Prior to last Thursday’s drop, Ethereum had traded above its realized price for more than a week, supported by consistent buyer defense.

However, the latest breakdown altered the short-term market structure. Recovery efforts toward $2,309 have encountered resistance, indicating that some market participants are taking advantage of bounces to reduce risk near their entry point.

A sustained break back above the realized price would offer a positive signal, potentially pointing to a resurgence in buy-side demand.

Institutional support remains another key headwind for Ethereum. SoSoValue data reveals that U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs recorded nearly $85 million in net outflows on Tuesday, extending their withdrawal streak to seven consecutive trading sessions.

These recent redemptions follow a difficult October, when the funds registered a record $1.61 billion in monthly net outflows.

The ongoing withdrawals indicate that investors continue to scale back their exposure to ETH via regulated investment vehicles.

Ethereum holds $2,250 as bulls slowly regain control

Ethereum’s daily technical outlook is gradually shifting bullish, even as ETH remains below several critical Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The 20-day EMA sits at $2,352 and the 100-day EMA is positioned at $2,345. Both indicators align near horizontal resistance at $2,355, forming a dense supply zone that could limit upside momentum.

Further up, the 50-day EMA at $2,411 acts as another key technical barrier. Remaining below these averages signals that short- and medium-term trends remain under pressure.

Momentum indicators reflect a similarly cautious tone. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades around 39, remaining beneath the neutral 50 line.

Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator hovering near 34 indicates that upward momentum remains subdued.

Together, these technical signals demonstrate that buyers have not yet established firm control over the market.

Ethereum’s immediate floor sits at $2,250. Successfully holding this level could allow ETH to consolidate and mount another push toward its $2,309 realized price.

However, a decisive daily close below $2,250 would deteriorate the near-term technical setup, exposing secondary support at $2,204.

If selling accelerates, Ethereum could extend its drop toward $2,107. A deeper pullback would bring broader structural support levels at $1,971 and $1,827 into focus.

To the upside, buyers must first reclaim the $2,309 realized price to brighten the immediate picture.

The primary resistance zone rests between $2,345 and $2,355, where the 100-day and 20-day EMAs intersect with horizontal chart resistance.

A sustained breakout above this range could pave the way for a recovery toward the 50-day EMA at $2,411, with additional overhead targets located at $2,548, $2,636, and $2,781.