Ethereum risks 10% drop against Bitcoin as double-top pattern emerges

Key takeaways

• ETH recently traded around 0.03167 BTC, reflecting weakened performance relative to Bitcoin.
• A double-top pattern appears to be forming, characterized by twin peaks near 0.03344 BTC.
• Should the price close below the 0.03078 BTC neckline, it could spark a 10% drop down to 0.0283 BTC.

Ethereum is showing signs of continued weakness against Bitcoin, with a potential double-top pattern taking shape on the daily ETH/BTC chart.

On September 16, Ether was trading near 0.03167 BTC after failing to hold onto its recent gains. A cautious short-term outlook is driven by fading momentum, rising regulatory doubts, and a major spike in ETH inflows to Binance.

If the pair breaks decisively below 0.03078 BTC, it could trigger a roughly 10% drop to around 0.0283 BTC.

Double-top pattern on ETH/BTC points to potential drop

The ETH/BTC daily chart has established two matching peaks near 0.03344 BTC, with the first recorded in August and the second in September.

This technical configuration points to a double top, a classic bearish reversal pattern that occurs when buyers fail to push past the same key resistance level on consecutive attempts.

The neckline of this formation lies at approximately 0.03078 BTC. To confirm this bearish outlook, Ethereum must register a decisive daily close below this threshold.

By projecting the height of the double top downward from the neckline, the technical target lands near 0.0283 BTC. A drop to this level would mean an approximate 10% decrease from Ether’s current value relative to Bitcoin.

Fading momentum for Ethereum

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH/BTC has slipped back toward 50 after previously climbing past the overbought mark of 70.

While the RSI is still holding just above the neutral line, its downward trajectory suggests that the buying pressure driving Ethereum’s August-to-September rebound is losing steam.

Currently, Ether remains slightly above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of roughly 0.03162 BTC. If it bounces strongly off this support level, it could stall or entirely avert the projected bearish breakdown.

Conversely, a sustained climb above the twin peaks at 0.03344 BTC would cancel out the double-top pattern and revive a bullish outlook for ETH against Bitcoin.

This bearish technical development occurred alongside a legislative setback on September 15, when the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

Although the procedural vote finished 50-49 in favor, it fell short of the 60 votes needed to progress. However, a procedural vote change by Senator Thom Tillis keeps the door open for the bill to be reconsidered in the future.

This political roadblock sparked a broader crypto market pullback. Bitcoin shed about 4% to trade near $75,900, and shares of prominent cryptocurrency companies like Coinbase and Circle also experienced declines.

In times of heightened regulatory ambiguity, market participants often pivot toward Bitcoin, viewing it as safer than more risk-sensitive assets like Ethereum. This dynamic can weigh heavily on the ETH/BTC ratio, shifting focus back to the critical 0.03078 BTC neckline.

Binance records single-day deposit of 709,400 ETH

Adding to the potential sell-side pressure, Ethereum deposits to the Binance exchange have surged dramatically.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that roughly 709,400 ETH was transferred to the exchange on September 11, representing the largest single-day inflow since June. Furthermore, multiple recent trading days have seen inflows top 500,000 ETH, a significant jump compared to the quieter activity seen in July and August.

An increase in exchange inflows boosts the volume of ETH readily available for trading. While sending assets to an exchange does not guarantee they will be sold, such massive deposits often foreshadow a spike in market supply and heightened volatility.

These substantial inflows compound the cautious sentiment already sparked by Ethereum’s slowing momentum and the regulatory hurdles surrounding the CLARITY Act.

Bulls face crucial test at 0.03078

The realization of this bearish outlook hinges on whether ETH/BTC registers a decisive close below the 0.03078 BTC neckline. A confirmed break past this level would clear the way toward the projected target of 0.0283 BTC.

On the other hand, the 20-day EMA near 0.03162 BTC could act as a launchpad for a recovery. Should Ether manage to break above 0.03344 BTC, the double-top pattern would be invalidated, signaling a return of Ethereum’s strength over Bitcoin.