Ethereum reclaims $2,431 as buyers absorb rate hike and regulatory setback

• Ethereum climbed 1.7%, pushing back above the critical $2,431 threshold.
• US-based spot Ethereum ETFs experienced $365.5 million in combined net outflows across Tuesday and Wednesday.
• Clearing resistance at $2,544 could pave the way toward $2,626, while key support remains established around $2,269 to $2,282.

Ethereum (ETH) posted a 1.7% gain over a 24-hour window, reclaiming the $2,431 mark. This recovery occurred despite headwinds from the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years and the US Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act.

On-chain metrics paint a picture of crypto-native buyers stepping in to absorb the dip, highlighted by significant exchange withdrawals, a shift back toward buy-side activity in perpetual futures, and short liquidations.

Conversely, institutional sentiment remains muted, as evidenced by persistent outflows from US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds.

Ethereum holds above $2,400 after Fed rate hike

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%.

The unanimous 12–0 vote was highly anticipated by market participants, who had priced in a greater than 90% chance of the hike ahead of the announcement. Furthermore, the majority of Fed policymakers project another rate increase before 2026 draws to a close.

While higher interest rates typically drag down cryptocurrency valuations by increasing borrowing costs and boosting the appeal of yield-bearing traditional assets, Ethereum held steady above $2,400. This resilience indicates that the market had already factored in the policy move.

Similarly, the failure of the CLARITY Act to garner the 60 Senate votes needed for cloture triggered only a brief sell-off before buyers stepped back in to support the price.

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that more than 152,000 ETH was withdrawn from cryptocurrency exchanges on Tuesday, representing the largest single-day net outflow since June.

Although Wednesday saw a brief shift where deposits outpaced withdrawals, the trend quickly reversed back to net outflows.

Heavy exchange outflows typically indicate that investors are moving their assets into private cold storage rather than preparing to sell. This movement reduces the immediate circulating supply on trading platforms, which can help support prices if buying pressure persists.

However, it is worth noting that exchange flows can sometimes reflect internal custodian transfers rather than direct market purchases.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s taker buy-sell ratio in the perpetual futures market has climbed back into buy-dominant territory, reversing a brief spike in selling pressure on Tuesday.

This metric tracks the volume of market-buy orders relative to market-sell orders in perpetual contracts; a value above one indicates that buyers are executing orders more aggressively than sellers.

Liquidation metrics also signal a recovery in market sentiment. Tuesday saw $221 million in total liquidations, with long positions making up 88% of that figure.

Over the following 24 hours, liquidations dropped to $87.6 million. Of that total, short positions accounted for $45.4 million, demonstrating that the price rebound forced bearish traders to close out their positions.

Open interest remained stable near 13 million ETH over the two-day period, while funding rates turned positive again after a brief dip into negative territory.

In contrast, institutional flows paint a more bearish picture. According to data from SoSoValue, US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $224.1 million in net outflows on Wednesday, following $141.4 million in withdrawals on Tuesday.

This brought the total net outflows for the two-day period to $365.5 million. The ongoing ETF redemptions stand in stark contrast to the accumulation patterns observed on crypto exchanges and derivatives platforms.

This divergence suggests that native crypto investors are actively absorbing the market pullback even as traditional financial products experience capital flight.

ETH reclaims the 20-Day EMA

Ethereum has successfully climbed back above both the $2,431 horizontal level and its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), two technical markers that have served as vital support over the last month.

Momentum indicators currently point to a neutral market stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 53, while the Stochastic oscillator sits near 26, pointing to price consolidation rather than overbought conditions.

Immediate resistance for ETH is located at $2,544. A decisive move above this level could clear the path for targets at $2,626 and subsequently $2,786.

On the downside, if Ethereum fails to sustain $2,431, its next significant safety net lies between the 50-day EMA at $2,282 and the 200-day EMA at $2,269. Below that zone, further support can be found at $2,172, the 100-day EMA at $2,163, and horizontal support at $1,961.